Ubusabe butandukanye n'umusaruro w'ibipfunyika bigezweho ku masoko atandukanye biri gutuma isoko ryabyo riva kuri miliyari 38 z'amadolari rikagera kuri miliyari 79 z'amadolari mu 2030. Iri zamuka riterwa n'ibikenewe n'imbogamizi zitandukanye, nyamara rikomeza kuzamuka. Uku gupfunyika bigezweho bituma ibipfunyika bigezweho bikomeza guhanga udushya no guhuza ibintu, bigahura n'ibikenewe byihariye by'amasoko atandukanye mu bijyanye n'umusaruro, ibisabwa mu bya tekiniki, n'ibiciro mpuzandengo byo kugurisha.
Ariko, ubu buryo bworoshye bunateza ingorane ku nganda zikora ibikoresho byo gupakira zigezweho iyo amasoko amwe n'amwe ahuye n'ihungabana cyangwa ihindagurika. Muri 2024, ibikoresho byo gupakira bigezweho bigira inyungu mu iterambere ryihuse ry'isoko ry'amakuru, mu gihe kuzamuka kw'amasoko menshi nka telefoni zigendanwa bigenda buhoro.
Uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa bipfunyitse mu buryo bugezweho ni rumwe mu nzego zikora cyane mu ruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa bya semiconductor ku isi. Ibi biterwa n’uruhare rw’ibikorwa bitandukanye by’ubucuruzi uretse OSAT isanzwe (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), akamaro ka politiki k’inganda, ndetse n’uruhare rwayo mu bicuruzwa bikora neza cyane.
Buri mwaka uzana imbogamizi zawo zihindura imiterere y’uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho bipakiye. Muri 2024, hari ibintu byinshi by’ingenzi bigira ingaruka kuri iyi mpinduka: ubushobozi buke, imbogamizi ku musaruro, ibikoresho bishya n’ibikoresho, ibisabwa mu ikoreshwa ry’imari, amategeko agenga imiterere y’isi n’ibikorwa, gukenera cyane amasoko runaka, amahame ahinduka, abashya binjira, n’ihindagurika ry’ibikoresho fatizo.
Havutse ubufatanye bwinshi bushya kugira ngo hakemurwe ibibazo by’uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa mu buryo bwihuse kandi bufatika. Ikoranabuhanga rikomeye rigezweho ryo gupakira riri guhabwa uburenganzira ku bandi bitabiriye kugira ngo bashyigikire impinduka nziza ku buryo bushya bw’ubucuruzi no guhangana n’imbogamizi z’ubushobozi. Gushyira mu bikorwa ibipimo ngenderwaho bya chips birakomeje gushimangirwa kugira ngo hatezwe imbere ikoreshwa rya chips mu buryo bwagutse, hashakishwe amasoko mashya, kandi bigabanye ibibazo by’ishoramari ku giti cyabo. Muri 2024, ibihugu bishya, amasosiyete, ibigo, n’imirongo y’igerageza bitangiye kwiyemeza gupakira bigezweho—icyerekezo kizakomeza kugeza mu 2025.
Gupakira ibikoresho bigezweho ntabwo biragera ku rwego rw'ikoranabuhanga. Hagati ya 2024 na 2025, gupakira ibikoresho bigezweho byageze ku ntambwe ikomeye, kandi ikoranabuhanga ririyongera rigashyirwamo verisiyo nshya zikomeye z'ikoranabuhanga rya AP n'amakuru agezweho, nka EMIB na Foveros bya Intel byo mu gisekuru gishya. Gupakira ibikoresho bya CPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices) nabyo birimo kwitabwaho n'inganda, aho ikoranabuhanga rishya ririmo guterwa imbere kugira ngo rikurure abakiriya kandi ryongere umusaruro.
Imiterere y’urusobe rw’amashanyarazi igezweho igaragaza urundi rwego rufitanye isano ya hafi, rusangira imbonerahamwe y’inzira, amahame y’imikoranire mu gushushanya, n’ibisabwa mu bikoresho hamwe n’ibipfunyika bigezweho.
Uretse izi koranabuhanga z'ingenzi, ikoranabuhanga ritandukanye "ritagaragara" ririmo guteza imbere uburyo butandukanye bwo gupakira ibintu bigezweho: ibisubizo byo gutanga ingufu, ikoranabuhanga ryo gushyiramo ibintu, gucunga ubushyuhe, ibikoresho bishya (nk'ibirahure n'ibikoresho bishya by'umwimerere), uburyo bugezweho bwo guhuza ibintu, n'ibikoresho bishya. Kuva ku bikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga bigendanwa n'ibikoreshwa kugeza ku ikoranabuhanga ry'ubukorano n'amakuru, gupakira ibintu bigezweho birimo guhindura ikoranabuhanga ryabyo kugira ngo rihuze n'ibyo buri soko rikeneye, bigatuma ibicuruzwa byabyo byo mu gihe kizaza bihaza ibyo isoko rikeneye.
Isoko ry’ibipfunyika byo ku rwego rwo hejuru riteganijwe kugera kuri miliyari 8 z’amadolari mu 2024, aho biteganijwe ko bizarenga miliyari 28 z’amadolari mu 2030, bigaragaza igipimo cy’izamuka ry’ubukungu ku mwaka (CAGR) cya 23% kuva mu 2024 kugeza mu 2030. Ku bijyanye n’amasoko ya nyuma, isoko rinini ry’ibipfunyika byo ku rwego rwo hejuru ni "itumanaho n’ibikorwa remezo," ryinjije amafaranga arenga 67% mu 2024. Rikurikirwa cyane n’"isoko rya telefoni zigendanwa n’abaguzi," ari na ryo soko rikura vuba rifite CAGR ya 50%.
Ku bijyanye n'ibipaki by'ibikoresho byo gupakira, biteganijwe ko ibipaki by'ibikoresho byo mu rwego rwo hejuru bizagera ku kigero cya 33% kuva mu 2024 kugeza mu 2030, bikiyongera kuva kuri miliyari 1 mu 2024 bikagera kuri miliyari 5 mu 2030. Iri zamuka rikomeye riterwa n'ikenerwa rikomeye ry'ibipaki by'ibikoresho byo mu rwego rwo hejuru, kandi igiciro cy'igurishwa kiri hejuru cyane ugereranije n'ibipaki by'ibikoresho bidateye imbere, bitewe n'impinduka mu gaciro kuva ku gice cyo imbere kugera ku gice cyo inyuma bitewe na platforms za 2.5D na 3D.
3D stacked memory (HBM, 3DS, 3D NAND, na CBA DRAM) niyo ifite uruhare runini, byitezwe ko izatwara hejuru ya 70% by'isoko mu 2029. Inzego zikura vuba zirimo CBA DRAM, 3D SoC, active Si interposers, 3D NAND stacks, na embedded Si bridges.
Imbogamizi zo kwinjira mu ruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa byo mu rwego rwo hejuru zirimo kwiyongera cyane, aho inganda nini zikora ibikoresho bya wafer na IDM zibangamira ubushobozi bwazo bwo gupakira. Gukoresha ikoranabuhanga rya hybrid bonding bituma ibintu birushaho kugorana ku bacuruzi ba OSAT, kuko abafite ubushobozi bwo gupakira wafer n'amikoro menshi ari bo bonyine bashobora kwihanganira igihombo gikomeye cy'umusaruro n'ishoramari rikomeye.
Mu 2024, abakora ibikoresho byo kubika amakuru bahagarariye Yangtze Memory Technologies, Samsung, SK Hynix, na Micron bazaba ari bo baziganje, bafite 54% by'isoko ry'ibikoresho byo kubika amakuru ku rwego rwo hejuru, kuko ibikoresho byo kubika amakuru bya 3D stacked memory biruta ibindi bikoresho mu bijyanye n'inyungu, umusaruro w'ibikoresho, n'umusaruro wa wafer. Mu by'ukuri, ingano y'ibikoresho byo kubika amakuru bigura irenze kure iy'ibikoresho byo kubika amakuru. TSMC iri imbere ifite umugabane wa 35% ku isoko, igakurikirwa na Yangtze Memory Technologies ifite 20% ku isoko ryose. Biteganijwe ko abashya nka Kioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, na Samsung bazagera ku isoko rya 3D NAND vuba, bakigarurira umugabane w'isoko. Samsung iza ku mwanya wa gatatu n'umugabane wa 16%, igakurikirwa na SK Hynix (13%) na Micron (5%). Uko ibikoresho byo kubika amakuru bya 3D stacked memory bikomeza gutera imbere kandi ibicuruzwa bishya bigatangizwa, imigabane y'aba bakinnyi yitezweho gukura neza. Intel ikurikira cyane n'umugabane wa 6%.
Inganda zikomeye za OSAT nka Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), JCET, Amkor, na TF zikomeje kugira uruhare runini mu bikorwa byo gupakira no kugerageza. Barimo kugerageza kubona isoko bakoresheje ibisubizo byo gupakira ku rwego rwo hejuru bishingiye kuri ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) na mold interposes. Ikindi kintu cy'ingenzi ni ubufatanye bwabo n'inganda zikomeye n'inganda zikora ibikoresho bihujwe (IDMs) kugira ngo barebe ko bitabira ibi bikorwa.
Muri iki gihe, gushyira mu bikorwa uburyo bwo gupakira ibikoresho byo mu rwego rwo hejuru bikomeje kwishingikiriza ku ikoranabuhanga rya FE, aho guhuza ibikoresho byo mu bwoko bwa hybrid bikomeje kuba ikintu gishya. BESI, binyuze mu bufatanye bwayo na AMAT, igira uruhare runini muri iyi nzira nshya, itanga ibikoresho ku bigo binini nka TSMC, Intel, na Samsung, byose bihatanira kuba isoko. Abandi batanga ibikoresho nka ASMPT, EVG, SET, na Suiss MicroTech, ndetse na Shibaura na TEL, nabo ni ingenzi mu ruhererekane rw'ibikoresho.
Icyerekezo gikomeye cy’ikoranabuhanga ku mbuga zose zikora neza zo gupakira, uko ubwoko bwazo bwaba buri kose, ni ukugabanya uburyo bwo gupakira ibintu mu buryo buhuza ikoranabuhanga—icyerekezo gifitanye isano na through-silicon vias (TSVs), TMVs, microbumps, ndetse no guhuza ikoranabuhanga mu buryo buvanze, icya nyuma kikaba ari igisubizo gikomeye cyane. Byongeye kandi, through diameter na wafer sighted nabyo biteganijwe ko bizagabanuka.
Iri terambere ry'ikoranabuhanga ni ingenzi cyane mu guhuza chips na chipsets bigoye kurushaho kugira ngo bifashe mu gutunganya no kohereza amakuru vuba, ariko kandi binatuma ingufu n'igihombo bigabanuka, amaherezo bigafasha guhuza ubucucike bwinshi n'uburyo bwo kohereza amakuru ku bicuruzwa bizaza.
Guhuza 3D SoC hybrid bisa nkaho ari inkingi y'ingenzi mu ikoranabuhanga ryo gupakira ibintu bigezweho mu gisekuru gitaha, kuko bituma habaho uburyo bwo guhuza ibintu buto mu gihe byongera ubuso bwose bwa SoC. Ibi bituma habaho amahirwe nko gupakira chipsets muri SoC die yagabanijwemo ibice, bityo bigatuma habaho gupakira ibintu bitandukanye. TSMC, ifite ikoranabuhanga rya 3D Fabric, yabaye iya mbere mu gupakira ibintu bya 3D SoIC hakoreshejwe guhuza ibintu bivanze. Byongeye kandi, biteganijwe ko guhuza chip-to-wafer bizatangirana n'umubare muto wa HBM4E 16-layer DRAM stacks.
Chipset n'uburyo butandukanye bwo guhuza ni ikindi kintu cy'ingenzi gituma HEP ikoreshwa, aho ibicuruzwa biboneka ku isoko bikoresha ubu buryo. Urugero, Sapphire Rapids ya Intel ikoresha EMIB, Ponte Vecchio ikoresha Co-EMIB, na Meteor Lake ikoresha Foveros. AMD ni undi mucuruzi ukomeye wakoresheje ubu buryo bw'ikoranabuhanga mu bicuruzwa byayo, nka poroseseri za Ryzen na EPYC zo mu gisekuru cya gatatu, ndetse n'imiterere ya chipset ya 3D muri MI300.
Biteganijwe kandi ko Nvidia izakoresha iyi chipset mu cyiciro cyayo gishya cya Blackwell. Nk'uko abacuruzi bakomeye nka Intel, AMD, na Nvidia bamaze kubitangaza, biteganijwe ko hazabaho izindi paki zirimo partitioned cyangwa replicated die umwaka utaha. Byongeye kandi, ubu buryo buteganijwe kuzakoreshwa mu bikorwa byo mu rwego rwo hejuru bya ADAS mu myaka iri imbere.
Muri rusange, intego ni uguhuza izindi porogaramu za 2.5D na 3D muri paki imwe, zimwe mu nganda zisanzwe ziyita paki ya 3.5D. Kubwibyo, twiteze kubona havuka paki zihuza chips za 3D SoC, interposer za 2.5D, embedded silicon bridges, na co-packaged optics. Platifomu nshya za 2.5D na 3D zigiye gupakirwa, birushaho kongera uburyohe bwa paki ya HEP.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Kanama-11-2025