Ishoramari rya AI rirazamuka: Igurishwa ry'ibikoresho byo mu nganda ku isi bya Semiconductor (Chip) ryitezwe kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu 2025.
Bitewe n’ishoramari rikomeye mu ikoranabuhanga ry’ubukorano, biteganijwe ko kugurisha ibikoresho bya semiconductor ku isi (chip) bizagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu 2025. Biteganijwe ko kugurisha bizakomeza kwiyongera no gushyiraho amateka mashya mu myaka ibiri iri imbere (2026-2027).
Ku ya 16 Ukuboza, ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki (SEMI) cyashyize ahagaragara raporo y’iteganyagihe ku isoko ry’ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki ku isi muri SEMICON Japan 2025. Raporo iteganya ko mu mpera za 2025, ibicuruzwa bya elegitoroniki ku isi biziyongeraho 13.7% ugereranyije n’umwaka, bikagera ku giciro cyo hejuru cya miliyari 133 z’amadolari ya Amerika. Byongeye kandi, biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa bizakomeza kwiyongera mu myaka ibiri iri imbere, bikagera kuri miliyari 145 z’amadolari ya Amerika mu 2026 na miliyari 156 z’amadolari ya Amerika mu 2027, bigakomeza guca amateka y’amateka.
SEMI igaragaza ko impamvu nyamukuru ituma habaho iterambere rirambye mu kugurisha ibikoresho bya chips ituruka ku ishoramari mu ikoranabuhanga rigezweho ryo mu mutwe, kwibuka, n'ikoranabuhanga rigezweho ryo gupakira rijyanye n'ubwenge bw'ubukorano.
Umuyobozi Mukuru wa SEMI, Ajit Manocha, yagize ati: "Ku isi hose, ibikoresho bya chip biri kuzamuka cyane, ndetse n'ibikorwa bya back-end byitezwe kwiyongera mu mwaka wa gatatu wikurikiranya, kandi biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa bizarenga miliyari 150 z'amadolari ku nshuro ya mbere mu 2027. Nyuma y'iteganyagihe ryacu ryo hagati mu mwaka ryashyizwe ahagaragara muri Nyakanga, twazamuye iteganyagihe ryacu ryo kugurisha ibikoresho bya chip kubera ishoramari rirenze iryo twari twiteze mu gushyigikira icyifuzo cya AI."
SEMI irateganya ko ibikoresho bigezweho ku isi (ibikoresho byo gukora wafer; WFE) bizagurishwa ku kigero cya 11.0% umwaka ushize bikagera kuri miliyari 115.7 z'amadolari mu 2025, ugereranije n'ibyari biteganyijwe hagati mu mwaka bya miliyari 110.8 z'amadolari kandi birenga ibyari biteganyijwe mu 2024 bya miliyari 104 z'amadolari, bigashyiraho agahigo gashya. Ivugurura ry'ibyari biteganijwe kugurishwa kwa WFE rigaragaza ahanini ukwiyongera gutunguranye kw'ishoramari rya DRAM na HBM bitewe n'ubusabe bw'ikoranabuhanga rya AI, ndetse n'uruhare runini rwavuye mu kwagura ubushobozi bw'Ubushinwa. Bitewe n'ubusabe bwiyongera bw'ikoranabuhanga rigezweho n'ubwiyongere bw'ubushobozi, ibicuruzwa bya WFE ku isi biteganijwe kwiyongeraho 9.0% muri 2026 bikongera kwiyongeraho 7.3% muri 2027, bikagera kuri miliyari 135.2 z'amadolari.
SEMI igaragaza ko Ubushinwa, Tayiwani, na Koreya y'Epfo biteganijwe ko bizaguma ku rutonde rw'abagura ibikoresho bitatu bya mbere bya chip mu 2027. Mu gihe cy'iteganyagihe (kugeza mu 2027), biteganijwe ko Ubushinwa buzakomeza gushora imari mu bikorwa bikuze n'ibice byihariye byateye imbere kugira ngo bukomeze ku mwanya wa mbere; icyakora, iterambere ryitezwe ko rizagabanuka nyuma ya 2026, aho ibicuruzwa bizagenda bigabanuka buhoro buhoro. Muri Tayiwani, biteganijwe ko ishoramari rinini mu kwagura ubushobozi bwo gukora ibikoresho bigezweho rizakomeza kugeza mu 2025. Muri Koreya y'Epfo, ishoramari rinini mu ikoranabuhanga rigezweho ryo kwibuka, harimo na HBM, rizafasha mu kugurisha ibikoresho.
Mu tundi turere, ishoramari ryitezwe kwiyongera muri 2026 na 2027 bitewe n’inkunga ya leta, imbaraga zo gushyira mu bikorwa ibikorwa remezo, ndetse n’ubushobozi bwo kongera umusaruro w’ibicuruzwa byihariye.
Ishyirahamwe ry’inganda z’ikoranabuhanga n’ikoranabuhanga mu Buyapani (JEITA) ryasohoye raporo ku ya 2 Ukuboza ivuga ko, nk’uko byatangajwe n’iteganyagihe rya nyuma ryatanzwe na Sisitemu y’Ubucuruzi bw’Ibintu bya Semiconductor ku Isi (WSTS), ishoramari mu bigo by’amakuru by’ubutasi bw’ubukorano rizaba ari ryo shingiro, rigakomeza kwiyongera cyane mu gukenera ububiko bw’ibikoresho byo kwibuka, GPU, n’ibindi bikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga. Kubwibyo, kugurisha ibikoresho bya semiconductor ku isi biteganijwe kwiyongeraho 26.3% buri mwaka bikagera kuri miliyari 975.46 z’amadolari mu 2026, bikagera kuri tiriyari 1 z’amadolari kandi bikaba ari agahigo gashya mu mwaka wa gatatu wikurikiranya.
Kugurisha ibikoresho bya semiconductor byo mu Buyapani bikomeje kugera ku rwego rwo hejuru.
Igurishwa ry'ibikoresho byo mu nganda zikora ibikoresho bya semiconductor mu Buyapani rikomeje gukomera, aho mu Kwakira 2025 ibicuruzwa byagurishijwe birenga miliyari 400 z'amayen mu kwezi kwa 12 kwikurikiranya, bishyiraho agahigo gashya muri icyo gihe. Bitewe n'ibi, imigabane y'ibigo by'ibikoresho bya chip byo mu Buyapani yiyongereye uyu munsi.
Nk’uko ikinyamakuru Yahoo Finance kibitangaza, kugeza saa cyenda n’iminota makumyabiri za mu gitondo ku isaha ya Taipei ku ya 27, imigabane ya Tokyo Electron (TEL) yazamutseho 2.60%, imigabane ya Advantest (inganda ikora ibikoresho byo gupima) yazamutseho 4.34%, naho imigabane ya Kokosai (inganda ikora ibikoresho byo kubikamo filime nto) yazamutseho 5.16%.
Amakuru yashyizwe ahagaragara n'Ishyirahamwe ry'Ibikoresho bya Semiconductor mu Buyapani (SEAJ) ku ya 26 yagaragaje ko ibikoresho bya semiconductor byagurishijwe mu Buyapani (harimo ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, impuzandengo y'amezi 3) byageze kuri miliyari 413.876 z'amayen mu Ukwakira 2025, ubwiyongere bwa 7.3% ugereranije n'igihe nk'icyo umwaka ushize, bikaba byaragaragaje ukwezi kwa 22 kwikurikiranya kw'iterambere. Ibicuruzwa byagurishijwe buri kwezi byarenze miliyari 300 z'amayen mu mezi 24 yikurikiranya na miliyari 400 z'amayen mu mezi 12 yikurikiranya, bishyiraho agahigo gashya muri uko kwezi.
Ibicuruzwa byagabanutseho 2.5% ugereranije n'ukwezi gushize (Nzeri 2025), bikaba byaragabanutseho kabiri mu mezi atatu.
Kuva muri Mutarama kugeza mu Ukwakira 2025, kugurisha ibikoresho bya semiconductor mu Buyapani byageze kuri tiriyari 4.214 za yen, ni ukuvuga ukwiyongera kwa 17.5% ugereranije n'igihe nk'icyo umwaka ushize, birenga cyane amateka ya yen tiriyari 3.586 za yen yari yashyizweho mu 2024.
Isoko ry’u Buyapani ku isi ry’ibikoresho bya semiconductor (ukurikije amafaranga yinjira mu bicuruzwa) ryageze kuri 30%, rikaba isoko rya kabiri ku isi rinini nyuma ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.
Ku ya 31 Ukwakira, Tokyo Telecom (TEL) yatangaje ibyavuye mu micungire y'imari, ivuga ko bitewe n'imikorere myiza kurusha uko byari byitezwe, ikigo cyazamuye intego y'inyungu rusange mu mwaka w'ingengo y'imari wa 2025 (Mata 2025 kugeza Werurwe 2026) kuva kuri tiriyari 2.35 z'amayero muri Nyakanga kugera kuri tiriyari 2.38 z'amayero. Intego y'inyungu rusange mu mikorere nayo yazamutse kuva kuri miliyari 570 z'amayero kugera kuri miliyari 586 z'amayero, naho intego y'inyungu rusange kuva kuri miliyari 444 z'amayero kugera kuri miliyari 488 z'amayero.
Ku ya 3 Nyakanga, SEAJ yasohoye raporo y’iteganyagihe igaragaza ko bitewe n’ubwinshi bw’abashaka GPU na HBMs baturutse kuri seriveri za AI, ikigo cy’ikoranabuhanga cya TSMC cyo muri Tayiwani kizengurutse kizatangira gukora chips za 2nm, bigatuma ishoramari mu ikoranabuhanga rya 2nm ryiyongera. Byongeye kandi, ishoramari rya Koreya y'Epfo muri DRAM/HBM naryo ririmo kwiyongera. Kubwibyo, iteganyagihe ry’igurishwa ry’ibikoresho bya semiconductor by’Abayapani (hashingiwe ku kugurisha kw’ibigo by’Abayapani haba mu gihugu no mu mahanga) mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2025 (kuva muri Mata 2025 kugeza muri Werurwe 2026) ryavuguruwe riva ku gipimo cyari giteganyijwe cya tiriyari 4.659 z’amayen kikagera kuri tiriyari 4.8634 z’amayen, ubwiyongere bwa 2.0% ugereranije n’umwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2024, kandi byitezwe ko rizagera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu mwaka wa kabiri wikurikiranya.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukuboza-22-2025